Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
